Hedging Super Brawl Sunday

If you are reading on a smartphone, use landscape / hold phone sideways. 

2/13/2022: Super Bowl Sunday. Can you feel it? The excitement! The biggest media event of the year! Game time is set for 6:30 pm EST but coverage looks like it will begin at noon. Ya gotta have time to run all of the amazing Super Bowl ads, more than once, right? 

Check it out: you can find all of the non-car ads here, and all of the car ads right here. 

A thirty second ad this year costs $7M plus the cost of MAKING the commercial. I forget how many years ago it happened, but I remember when you HAD to WATCH the GAME to see the ads. You HAD to WATCH the GAME (LIVE) to see the Super Bowl Commercials, or you would miss out.

Viewership for NBC's coverage of the Beijing Winter Olympics is down. WAY DOWN. Why? 

Well, there is a general decline in TV viewing, period. Also a 13 hour time difference between Beijing and the East Coast, a controversy over China's human rights record, fewer fans attending due to COVID-19 restrictions, and potential view fatigue with a second Olympics just six months after the summer games.

Today's Super Bowl is projected to reach a record audience of 117 million viewers. And betting on the big game could surpass $7 billion. That's up from the $3.3 billion wagered last year when the Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers faced the Chiefs. 

I think it would be a "safe bet" that you already knew that you could bet on the Super Bowl. The American Gaming Association says that 31.4 million Americans will bet on the Bengals-Rams game. The AGA estimates that 55% of gamblers will bet on the Rams winning Super Bowl 56, while 45% are betting on the Bengals. 

Some guy named Jim McIngvale, better known as "Mattress Mack" bet $4.5 million on the Bengals to win. Sports betting is now legal in 30 states and New York set a record for $1.6 billion in wagers. 

I think it is ALSO a safe bet that you DID NOT KNOW that you could bet on the Olympics. I did not know that you could bet on the Olympics. The Beijing Olympics marks the second year that millions of Americans will be able to legally place bets on their favorite country or athlete from their mobile phones. 

FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, they are all expanding. Most professional betters typically don't take the Olympics too seriously. There are too many unpredictable elements to the Olympic Games. Here is the take home: people who bet on the Super Bowl love football. People who bet on the Olympics, love gambling. 

Amazing how you can bet on just about anything these days. As of this blog, the Las Vegas odds that Russia crosses the Ukrainian border: 60% chance for a peaceful compromise, 30% probability for a limited military incursion, and a 10% risk of a full scale invasion. 

I won't be making any bets today. I just want today's Super Bowl to be a good game. In other news: I also hope that Putin has hedged his bet, and is willing to NOT invade Ukraine. 

In life, when someone hedges a situation they are limiting their exposure to the downside. Hedging a bet is an advanced strategy to reduce the risk of a wager or to guarantee a profit of some kind from a wager. Allowing people to watch Super Bowl ads anytime - before, during and AFTER the game - feels like the advertisers are hedging on their $7 million 30 second investments, right? 

Olympics. Super Bowls. Invasions. Commercials and Advertising. In day-to-day life, it seems like a good idea to hedge your bets. Hedging is a way to guarantee at least some kind of win. 

GM Hedging on Climate Change

https://youtu.be/uEuEBT0TWQE